Friday, 3 August 2012

AN OMINOUS SIGN FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA


The pollster which I will be following for 2012 US Election, other than Gallup, is Rasmussen Reports http://www.rasmussenreports.com/. They are the only pollster who tests likely voters, as opposed to Registered Voters.

*Registered voters are those who in response to a standard poll question say they are "registered to vote in their precinct or election district." This is the group whose data a pollster will report on most often because they represent an estimate of Americans who in theory are eligible to vote and could vote if they want to.
In the final analysis, not all of these registered voters will actually vote. So pollsters have over the years created systems to isolate likely voters -- that group of individuals who the company can estimate are most likely to actually vote. That means that they aren’t really affiliated to one party which means they are undecided.

A recent Rasmussen poll showed Mitt Romney leading Obama by 47-43, nationally (see below). 










Dick Morris, former advisor to Bill Clinton in the 1990’s http://www.dickmorris.com, carried out a study of the undecided voters in the past eight elections in which incumbents sought a second term as president. The study revealed that only Bush-43 gained any of the undecided vote.
Johnson in ’64, Nixon in ’72, Ford in ’76, Carter in ’80, Reagan in ’84, Bush in ’92 and Clinton in ’96 all failed to pick up a single undecided vote.

Essentially 8 out of 10 votes will go to the challenger against an incumbent.

Rasmussen carried out polling of likely voters in the battleground state and they went as follows:

Ohio – Obama ahead by 2%
Virginia – Obama ahead by 1%
Florida – Romney ahead by 1%
Iowa – Romney ahead by 1%
Wisconsin – Obama ahead by 3%
Michigan – Obama ahead by 6%
Pennsylvania – Obama ahead by 4%
New Hampshire – Obama ahead by 5%
North Carolina – Romney ahead by 5%
Missouri – Romney ahead by 5%
Colorado – tie
Nevada – Obama ahead by 5%















Seven states show Obama ahead which would appear to be good news for Team Obama. However, from looking at history, I would expect that number to swing heavily toward Romney.
I am not saying that each state will go to Romney but when you have Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Colorado all within the margin for error at this early stage it doesn’t bode well for the Obama-Biden ticket.

 With {Obama} everyone knows his story, his policies and what he is about. If you are unsure about him now, what makes you think that you will be more positive about him come November. 

Remember, we have three debates coming up in October plus the conventions. The focus of voters will very much turn on at the end of this month. 

The more people look at the candidates, the more they will grow to like what Romney has done in the past and what he will do for the individual if he is elected.

I believe that Romney will win this election.....handily.