Tuesday, 14 February 2012


If you look at most national polls, Obama is the favourite for re-election in November. With unemployment falling again, he can lay claim to the idea that he is slowly but surely getting America back to work. This data will fluctuate between now and November but bottom-line, the economy is where this election will be won and lost.

With Romney struggling to endear the conservative base of the Republican Party, Gingrich struggling to stay relevant, Ron Paul being Ron Paul and Rick Santorum now surging in most polls, it is fair to say that no one knows pretty much what the likely outcome is. what is certain is that there will be more changes in the frontrunner status come the convention in Florida.

The question is why haven’t the Tea Party* got involved and unified around one candidate?

*(The Tea Party movement is an American populist political movement that is generally recognized as conservative and libertarian, and has sponsored protests and supported political candidates since 2009. It endorses reduced government spending, opposition to taxation in varying degrees, reduction of the national debt and federal budget deficit and adherence to an originalist interpretation of the United States Constitution.
With their help the Republicans regained control of the House of Representatives picking up a net total of 63 seats from the Democrats, which resulted in the highest loss of a party in a House midterm election since 1938.)

Well....they have chosen their candidate for this election. The trouble is.....it isn’t Romney, Santorum, Paul or Gingrich. Their ideal candidate is Sarah Palin.

She spoke at CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference) in Washington DC on Saturday night and wowed the crowd. Radio Host, Rush Limbaugh, has asserted that anyone who is able to clearly articulate conservatism will win this election. Palin is one of the best people out there that can come anywhere close to doing that. She has high negatives in large part due to the mainstream media destroying her personally, yet, somehow, she knows how to create hype and get people excited. While she isn’t running, her endorsement will mean a lot to any of the candidates.

Due to the fact that they haven’t found their dream candidate, organisationally, the Tea Party will not be as effective as they were in the 2010 midterms. So if the Tea Party isn’t primarily focused in the Presidential election this year, what effect will it have in 2012, if any?

My theory is as follows:

The Tea Party, whilst they believe that Obama is largely the problem, know the key to the ‘treasure trove’ is Congress. Essentially, the House of Representatives & the Senate are ‘parents’ and the President must ask ‘Dad’ for some spending money from time to time.

Since 2010, when the Tea Party swept the Republicans into power, it has slowed down, quite rapidly, the Obama legislating machine. Some might add, after his two years with a super majority, there wasn’t much else for him to do. However, Obama has found it harder to enact legislation or spend as radically as he did since the 2010 elections.

With that in mind, the Tea Party’s aim would be to maintain, if not increase the Republican members of the House of Representatives and vigorously go after the Senate where there the Democrats have an advantage of 53 to 47. Essentially, they would be looking paralyse Obama, (if he is re-elected) from the day of inauguration. The Tea Party and the Republican’s would then control the board and with that, President Obama.

How will the Tea Party and the grassroots do it? by relentlessly focus on Obama. They will remind voters about his economic record:

• The failed $787billion stimulus package that Obama signed into law.
• The $900 billion HealthCare law aka ‘ObamaCare’ which was forced down our throats.
• The ‘Dodd Frank’ bill which loads onerous legislation on small banks and simultaneously damages the Housing Market,
• The deficit has gone up by 43% and is still rising since.
• Unemployment has been above 8% for the majority of his presidency.
• Gas prices have risen 83%.
• Home values have plummeted by 13%.
• 14 million more people (45%) have applied for food stamps since he has become President.

They say that Obama is the most unifying force for the GOP. He is the tonic to get the Tea Party motivated and motivated they will be, come November.

No comments: