Monday, 14 November 2011

It's the Economy, Stupid!!!!

The campaign of Rick Perry has startlingly flat-lined, Michelle Bachman has shrunk into obscurity after her straw poll win in Iowa, Jon Huntsman and his “world-shattering” campaign has never kicked off and Rick Santorum hasn’t imposed himself at all.

There are however three people that are currently hot in pursuit for the GOP nomination:

Mitt Romney; Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich.

For Romney, it’s a case of ‘easy does it’. He hasn’t made mistakes, nor seemed out his depth and has stayed between 20- 25% since the beginning of this race. He isn’t, nor will ever be the flavour of the month with the Conservative wing of the Republican Party. He is safe with the Independent and Moderate voters but the Conservatives absolutely don’t trust him at all. His health care law in Massachusetts has taken a lot of heat and his flaky stance on Abortion and Global Warming.
Conversely, he has remained steady and wouldn’t be the worst candidate to take on Obama.

For Cain, it’s been some story.
In May 2011, he was polling at 4%, now he is at around 20%. A truly remarkable rise to the top.

How has he done it?
Through not being a politician and straight talk.
What could be his downfall?
Not being a politician and talking straight.

Before the sexual harassment claims came out, he was flying in the polls with his direct message regarding the tax system (the 999 plan), ObamaCare, the economy but since the scandal he has acted rather feebly. Yes, these rumours are just hearsay, but what he did, was go to every News Agency and issue mix messages and belittle the situation. Only after the accuser went public, did Cain get serious and issue a press conference.
Ideally from day one he should wholeheartedly admit that there was a settlement or arrangement when he was the President of the National Restaurant Association and explained the claims which would have stopped it cold, regardless of who ‘planted’ the story.
As a result, he is now beholden to any accusers who can come up with incriminating evidence. That is a horrible noose to have around your neck and it has already shown to be a negative in the polls. “Values Voters”, will be thinking twice about whether to vote for Cain.
(A point to ponder, in 2000, George W Bush, apparently lost 2 million voters after his was found to be Driving under the Influence (DUI). We all know who close that election was).

Then you have Newt Gingrich, he collapsed at the beginning of his campaign with horrendous comments regarding Paul Ryan, a revelation that he had a massive credit line with Tiffany’s and his wife being a huge drag on the campaign. As a result there was a mass exodus of staff and he was being pressured to drop out.
In July 2011, he was polling nationally at 6%, now he’s at 18% and rising.

He’s raised his standing through using his vast knowledge and experience as Speaker of the House and setting up businesses around the country, to run an ‘issues based’ campaign. It is fair to say that he has sounded smarter than most during each debate and his message is slowing resonating with the voters. He is also gaining votes for taking on the media during this election cycle.

So the stage is set. On paper it is Romney all day, however, Evangelicals and Conservatives are key for turnout. In 2000 & 2004 Bush was helped over the line by his base (Evangelicals and Conservatives). McCain didn’t have that luxury in 2008; only until Palin came onto the scene, did his poll numbers increase a great deal.
What people need to know is....Elections are won and lost on the Economy.

In 1980 – Reagan beat Carter, when the latter held office with double digit inflation and interest rates.

In 1992 Bill Clinton beat George W. Bush with the Clinton mantra of “it’s the Economy, Stupid”

In 2000 George W. Bush beat Al Gore with his talk about less government and lower taxes.

In 2008 Barack Obama beat John McCain after the economic meltdown in October. (Before that happened, McCain was up by 4points!)

I haven’t endorsed anyone at this time, nor will I do so for the immediate period but in my opinion, the GOP the slogan for 2012 is ironically:

“it’s the Economy, Stupid”.

No comments: